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例一:Scientists today have a very good understanding of the physical laws and mathematical equations that govern the behavior and motion of atoms in the air, oceans, and land. Why, then, do we have so much trouble predicting the weather? For a long time, most scientists assumed that the difficulty of weather prediction would go away once we had enough weather stations to collect data from around the world and sufficiently powerful computers to deal with all the data. However, we now know that weather is fundamentally unpredictable on time scales longer than a few weeks. To understand why,we must look at the nature of scientific prediction.
Suppose you want to predict the location of a car on a road 1 minute from now. You need two basic pieces of information: where the car is now, and how fast it is moving. If the car is now passing Smith Road and heading north at 1 mile per minute, it will be 1 mile north of Smith Road in 1 minute.
Why does the author mention a car in paragraph 2?
A. The car is an example of how conditions are used to make predictions.
B. The author digresses in order to tell a story about a car.
C. The car introduces the concept of computer models.
D. The mathematical equations for the car are very simple to understand.
例二:Suppose the initial conditions represent the weather around the Earth at this very moment and you run your computer model to predict the weather for the next month in New York City. The model might tell you that tomorrow will be warm and sunny, with cooling during the next week and a major storm passing through a month from now. Now suppose you run the model again but make one minor change in the initial conditions—say, a small change in the wind speed somewhere over Brazil. For tomorrow’s weather, this slightly different initial condition will not change the weather prediction for New York City. But for next month’s weather, the two predictions may not agree at all!
The disagreement between the two predictions arises because the laws governing weather can cause very tiny changes in initial conditions to be greatly magnified over time. This extreme sensitivity to initial conditions is sometimes called the butterfly effect: If initial conditions change by as much as the flap of a butterfly’s wings, the resulting prediction may be very different.
18. Why do the predictions disagree for the computer model described in paragraph 4?
A. The conditions at the beginning were very different.
B. The model was not accurately programmed.
C. Computer models cannot predict weather.
D. Over time models are less reliable.
22. Why does the author mention the economy in paragraph 6?
A. To contrast a simple system with a chaotic system
B. To provide an example of another chaotic system
C. To compare nonlinear equations with linear equations
D. To prove that all nonlinear systems are not chaotic
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