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Crucially, IS holds territory, as al-Qaeda once did in Afghanistan. Dislodging it would be worthwhile, because IS uses this territory to raise money and attract, train and co-ordinate many thousands of potential terrorists. For as long as it controls its would-be capital, Raqqa, and the Iraqi city of Mosul, IS remains a symbolic “homeland” for radical Muslims. The fact of having withstood the world’s great powers—because Allah wills it—serves as potent inspiration.
An alternative strategy to warfare might be to wait for IS to wither by itself. But that is a forlorn hope. IS continues to exist because the Middle East is consumed by a titanic struggle between Sunni and Shia Islam. This is overlaid by the clash between regional powers and the rivalry of America and Russia. Whatever the opponents of military action say, the West is not what sustains this fight. Were Western countries to withdraw and focus on diplomacy alone, the violence would still go on, possibly for decades.
The case for military action, then, is that the alternative is worse. And yet, partly because it has been a low priority, progress in America’s campaign to “degrade and ultimately destroy” IS has been agonisingly slow.
After Paris, however, the mission has taken on some urgency. Mr Hollande, vowing to be “merciless”, has ordered intense French bombing on Raqqa. America has been gradually increasing its efforts, including recently by saying it will deploy 50 special-forces troops against IS. Britain’s government is likely to seek parliamentary backing for bombing raids in Syria—about time it supported its allies.
All this is welcome, but it is unlikely to be enough. To destroy IS means taking Raqqa and Mosul. That requires an army. So far, the plan has been to train Iraqi forces to use in Iraq, and to look to Kurds and sympathetic fighters in Syria. That plan is not going well. The Kurds have other worries. Despite the training (and money), neither the Iraqis nor the Syrians are ready for a big fight.
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