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The first step now must be to try harder to make the existing plan work, using more trainers and many more special forces fighting alongside Iraqi units. But if that fails, troops will have to come from elsewhere. Nicolas Sarkozy, the former French president, spoke for many this week when he suggested making common cause with Russia, and putting up with Mr Assad in order to use their fighters against IS. That approach has a superficial appeal, but would lead to a bloodbath—because both Mr Assad and his Iranian backers are sworn enemies of the Sunnis whose home is in IS’s territory. Better to assemble a UN-mandated force using Turkish, Saudi and Gulf Arab troops. That will not be easy, but all these countries have an interest in stabilising a Sunni region that threatens them—directly in the case of Turkey, which has itself been the victim of IS terrorism.
Barack Obama, America’s president, and other Western leaders have an incentive to shepherd such an alliance, because, if that scheme fails, a military campaign would depend on troops from NATO. Such a deployment still lacks political support. Speaking this week, Mr Obama seemed keener to dismiss suggestions of ground troops than he did to pursue IS. Yet, with each attack that IS unleashes on the West, the imperative to use Western troops against it will grow. In the terrible event of a large strike on American soil, the matter would be settled.
Talk, too
Military force is not enough on its own, though. It will make the rest of the world safer in the short run, but the critics are right that Islamic terror will end only when the Middle East lives in peace. The parallel aim, therefore, must be for regional powers to stop fighting through their proxies, and for the creation of federal states in Syria and Iraq that give Sunnis, Shias, Alawites and Kurds confidence that they can live together with decent representation in government. That requires strengthening the administration in Baghdad. And it means bringing an end to Syria’s civil war. Alas, judging by last week’s meeting in Vienna, such a settlement is still distant indeed.
The diplomacy will not be easy and military action should not be forestalled by its lack of progress. But the pursuit of political settlements must be earnest and involve all the parties, including Russia and Iran. The sticking-point is Mr Assad, whom both countries support. If there is to be peace in the remnants of his country, he has too much blood on his hands to remain in power indefinitely. Yet Vladimir Putin has his own jihadist threat—exacerbated by the departure of Islamists from the south Caucasus to Syria. Just perhaps, Mr Putin can be persuaded that Russia does not need Mr Assad to get rid of IS and also end up with an ally in western Syria.
Raqqa seems a terribly long way from the streets of Paris on a carefree Friday night. But the killings showed how easily violent ideas cross borders. Innocent lives are still at risk. They will probably be at risk for many years. All the more reason to act now, against every link in the chain.
From the print edition: Leaders
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